Todays Market

Finally the news media is starting to publish articles that support when Realtors have seen happening over the last few months (see article below). Granted it is a real estate spokesman being quoted, but if he's right, then the worst is over. We need to flush out the foreclosure mess and get things stable after the mortgage debacle. It is an election year so I don't know how skewed the recovery data will be due to that, but it looks like people who buy now will be the ones sitting pretty in five years.

Home Sales, Prices to Pick Up in Second Half of 2008, Says NAR Chief Economist

WASHINGTON, May 15, 2008

Home sales and prices throughout most of the country are poised for improvement in the second half of 2008, and the recovery will vary by market, Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS® said today during NAR's Midyear Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo. More than 9,000 REALTORS® and guests are attending the conference that runs here through Saturday.

Middle-America cities that performed evenly over the past few years – like Cincinnati, Milwaukee and the Kansas City, Mo., area – are likely to experience home price gains in the 20 to 30 percent range over the next five years, while markets like Miami, Las Vegas and Phoenix could see prices go up as much as 50 percent during that time period, Yun said.

Yun blamed most of the softening of the housing market over the last year on the "subprime mess," where consumers with blemished credit records got loans they couldn't afford when the interest rates reset to higher levels.

"In fact, if you look at where home prices fell the most, it's the markets were subprime loans were prevalent," Yun said. Cape Coral, Fla.; Detroit; Las Vegas; Miami; Orlando, Fla.; Phoenix and Riverside, Calif. were among the cities with a high percentage of subprime lending and where the markets suffered the biggest downturns, he explained.

"It's important to keep things in context," he said. "While much of the media is focusing on the fact that the rate of foreclosures doubled this year from historic averages, the foreclosure rate has gone from 1 percent of all homeowners with mortgages to 2 percent. Foreclosures are being driven principally by subprime loans."

He further explained that more than half of today's foreclosures are concentrated in the subprime market. The great majority of homeowners are making their mortgage payments on time.

Now that the subprime market has dried up, and loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration and those purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are making a comeback, the housing markets will strengthen and prices are likely to begin a steady uptick in the coming months, Yun said.

Yun urged the Congress and White House to enact NAR-supported legislation to modernize FHA programs, reform regulation of the government-sponsored enterprises (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), establish a first-time home buyer tax credit, and make the temporary increases to the conforming loan limits established by the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 permanent.

"These measures would quickly stabilize the housing markets and get fence-sitters into the market to buy homes," Yun said.

"There are many reasons for people to get into the housing market today, and very few reasons not to. With the plentiful supply of homes for sale at affordable prices, interest rates approaching 40-year lows, and the strong track record of housing as a good long-term investment, conditions are ripe for buyers," he added. "Those are the facts, plain and simple."

As for a recession, it's not happening, Yun said. "A slowdown, yes, but the definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. It's not in the cards – no matter how you look at it."

'Cyclical' real estate market will improve, Realtors told

State commissioner offers strategies

By Emmet Pierce

UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

May 10, 2008

Although the current real estate market downturn eventually will reverse itself, agents should prepare for difficult times, California Real Estate Commissioner Jeff Davi yesterday told about 300 members and guests of the San Diego Association of Realtors.

"The market is cyclical, you know that," he said. "There's no quick fix. There's no silver bullet."

Several years ago, during the fevered housing boom, some agents could make sales simply by going to work and answering the telephone, Davi said. "Well, those days are over."

He suggested that agents who haven't worked through previous housing slumps network with veterans have who seen the ups and downs of the business. They also should turn their attention to the rising number of foreclosure properties, he added.

"I see that as an opportunity for agents," he said.

Davi's remarks came during the association's Home Expo 2008, which ends today at the San Diego Convention Center. He was one of three luncheon speakers, along with Mayor Jerry Sanders and Greg Smith, the county's assessor, recorder and clerk.

It's Davi's responsibility to oversee the licensing and regulation of real estate agents and to investigate complaints. Because the ranks of agents grew rapidly during the recent boom, competition now is keen, he said. There are well over 500,000 licensed agents in the state.

"One in 53 adults in California has a real estate license," Davi said, drawing laughter from the crowd.

Many analysts blame the current market downturn on weak loan underwriting standards. Davi said the blame for the subprime mortgage crisis extends beyond real estate professionals. In cases of consumer loan fraud that his department investigates, borrowers often are in complicity.

He said he needed the help of Realtors to regulate the industry.

"I want to make sure we put the bad people out of business so they don't hurt people," he said.

While Davi emphasized the need for agents to work through the housing slump, Smith said that tough times are almost over. Taking the stage after Davi, the assessor predicted that the housing market will soon rebound.

"We're going to be in a trough for a while, but '08 is basically the bottom," Smith said. " . . . This is an outstanding time to buy real estate."

A key hurdle to the recovery is the recent surge in home foreclosures, he added. "Before the market can take off, we've got to get through these foreclosures."

Smith criticized the loose loan underwriting standards that enabled people to continue purchasing homes as prices soared.

"We had people offering 1 percent teaser rates, no down (payments), stated income. How in the world do you suspend the laws of economics?"

In his talk to the Realtor group, Sanders, who is seeking re-election, focused on his accomplishments in office, including his efforts to resolve the city's pension fund problems. In part, he said the city, under his leadership, had made progress in restoring finances, streamlining operations and developing new budget priorities.

The Housing Crisis Is Over

By CYRIL MOULLE-BERTEAUX
May 6, 2008
The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now.

How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won't happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor.

Most people forget that the current housing bust is nearly three years old. Home sales peaked in July 2005. New home sales are down a staggering 63% from peak levels of 1.4 million. Housing starts have fallen more than 50% and, adjusted for population growth, are back to the trough levels of 1982.

Furthermore, residential construction is close to 15-year lows at 3.8% of GDP; by the fourth quarter of this year, it will probably hit the lowest level ever. So what's going to stop the housing decline? Very simply, the same thing that caused the bust: affordability.

The boom made housing unaffordable for many American families, especially first-time home buyers. During the 1990s and early 2000s, it took 19% of average monthly income to service a conforming mortgage on the average home purchased. By 2005 and 2006, it was absorbing 25% of monthly income. For first time buyers, it went from 29% of income to 37%. That just proved to be too much.

Prices got so high that people who intended to actually live in the houses they purchased (as opposed to speculators) stopped buying. This caused the bubble to burst.

Since then, house prices have fallen 10%-15%, while incomes have kept growing (albeit more slowly recently) and mortgage rates have come down 70 basis points from their highs. As a result, it now takes 19% of monthly income for the average home buyer, and 31% of monthly income for the first-time home buyer, to purchase a house. In other words, homes on average are back to being as affordable as during the best of times in the 1990s. Numerous households that had been priced out of the market can now afford to get in.

The next question is: Even if home sales pick up, how can home prices stop falling with so many houses vacant and unsold? The flip but true answer: because they always do.

In the past five major housing market corrections (and there were some big ones, such as in the early 1980s when home sales also fell by 50%-60% and prices fell 12%-15% in real terms), every time home sales bottomed, the pace of house-price declines halved within one or two months.

The explanation is that by the time home sales stop declining, inventories of unsold homes have usually already started falling in absolute terms and begin to peak out in "months of supply" terms. That's the case right now: New home inventories peaked at 598,000 homes in July 2006, and stand at 482,000 homes as of the end of March. This inventory is equivalent to 11 months of supply, a 25-year high – but it is similar to 1974, 1982 and 1991 levels, which saw a subsequent slowing in home-price declines within the next six months.

Inventories are declining because construction activity has been falling for such a long time that home completions are now just about undershooting new home sales. In a few months, completions of new homes for sale could be undershooting new home sales by 50,000-100,000 annually.

Inventories will drop even faster to 400,000 – or seven months of supply – by the end of 2008. This shift in inventories will have a significant impact on prices, although house prices won't stop falling entirely until inventories reach five months of supply sometime in 2009. A five-month supply has historically signaled tightness in the housing market.

Many pundits claim that house prices need to fall another 30% to bring them back in line with where they've been historically. This is usually based on an analysis of house prices adjusted for inflation: Real house prices are 30% above their 40-year, inflation-adjusted average, so they must fall 30%. This simplistic analysis is appealing on the surface, but is flawed for a variety of reasons.

Most importantly, it neglects the fact that a great majority of Americans buy their houses with mortgages. And if one buys a house with a mortgage, the most important factor in deciding what to pay for the house is how much of one's income is required to be able to make the mortgage payments on the house. Today the rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is 5.7%. Back in 1981, the rate hit 18.5%. Comparing today's house prices to the 1970s or 1980s, when mortgage rates were stratospheric, is misguided and misleading.

This is all good news for the broader economy. The housing bust has been subtracting a full percentage point from GDP for almost two years now, which is very large for a sector that represents less than 5% of economic activity.

When the rate of house-price declines halves, there will be a wholesale shift in markets' perceptions. All of a sudden, the expected value of the collateral (i.e. houses) for much of the lending that went on for the past decade will change. Right now, when valuing the collateral, market participants including banks are extrapolating the current pace of house price declines for another two to three years; this has a significant impact on the amount of delinquencies, foreclosures and credit losses that lenders are expected to face.

More home sales and smaller price declines means fewer homeowners will be underwater on their mortgages. They will thus have less incentive to walk away and opt for foreclosure.

A milder house-price decline scenario could lead to increases in the market value of a lot of the securitized mortgages that have been responsible for $300 billion of write-downs in the past year. Even if write-backs do not occur, stabilizing collateral values will have a huge impact on the markets' perception of risk related to housing, the financial system, and the economy.

We are of course experiencing a serious housing bust, with serious economic consequences that are still unfolding. The odds are that the reverberations will lead to subtrend growth for a couple of years. Nonetheless, housing led us into this credit crisis and this recession. It is likely to lead us out. And that process is underway, right now.

Mr. Moulle-Berteaux is managing partner of Traxis Partners LP,
a hedge fund firm based in New York.